Israel’s Failed Attack on Iran
Iran’s Russian Air Defences Triumph; Israel’s American Air Defences Fail
Following Israel’s failed attack on Iran on Saturday 26th October, the Middle East is facing up to the possibility that an overextended, flailing Israel may be tempted to wield destruction out of desperation.
Israel’s attack on Iran was telegraphed in advance when reports emerged on social media about 10 US Air Force KC-135R tankers flying to the Middle East, accompanied by at least 20 F-16 fighter jets.
And a post on social media by an American airforce pilot (subsequently deleted) also let the cat out of the bag —
Whilst we can only speculate on the number of American pilots involved in the strike on Iran, it is difficult to argue that this was not essentially a joint American-Israeli military operation in all but name only.
Prior to the air strike, Israel asserted that its attack would be “lethal, precise and especially surprising”, stating that Iran “won’t understand what happened to it, or how”. As details of Saturday’s attack begin to trickle-out it has become clear that the attack was comprehensively repulsed by Iranian air defences causing Israel to abort the operation shortly after it had commenced.
The Anglosphere media reported that 100 Israeli aircraft were involved in the attack. In reality, the plan called for three waves of strikes on Iran. The first wave, comprising about 20 F-35 stealth fighter jets, aimed to blind Iranian air defences — Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) — clearing the way for the subsequent waves to potentially decapitate Iran’s leadership and target vital military and security assets.
Unconfirmed reports suggest that the first wave of F-35 fighter jets was detected and subsequently repulsed by advanced Russian air defence and electronic warfare systems. As a result, the fifth-generation, so-called stealth F-35s were forced to launch their missiles early, about 70 miles from the Iranian border, whilst flying over Iraq; no Israeli aircraft entered Iranian airspace.
The F35’s then immediately returned to base and the subsequent two waves of aircraft aborted the operation. And from the video images released on social media we can deduce that Iranian air interceptors did their job and successfully intercepted some, if not most, of the missiles that were launched.
From the below video (unverified), from about 12 seconds in, you can see what appears to be four Israeli missiles successfully intercepted by Iranian interceptors.
Political analyst Gilbert Doctorow reports that Russian unofficial sources claim —
“…Russia provided to Teheran advance warning of the impending Israeli attack coming from its own technical means of intelligence gathering, presumably meaning satellites and/or AWACS. If this is true, then it demonstrates that Russia will provide effective and highly useful assistance to Iran as the conflict with Israel evolves”…
And whilst there is no official confirmation that Russia has supplied Iran with its formidable S400 mobile surface to air missile system, the successful interceptor strikes captured on video tend to suggest it has.
Former CIA and intelligence analyst Larry Johnson notes —
If the early reports from Iran are confirmed — i.e., no significant damage to any target in Iran — then the Netanyahu cabinet are going to be taking some big doses of Xanax. If this is the case, then Israel’s attack was an abject failure. It appears that Israel launched ballistic cruise missiles from aircraft outside the territory of Iran. It also appears that the Russian-supplied air defence systems did their job, along with electronic warfare systems, and defeated the Israeli attack.
Nevertheless, some targets were hit, but it remains unclear whether the relatively minor damage reported was caused by Israeli air launched ballistic missiles or drones used by Western-supported armed groups in Iran such as the MEK. Reported impacts (all minor) include a fuel mixing facility in Khojir, a warehouse in Shamsabad Industrial City near Imam Khomeini International Airport (related to agriculture and mining), a radar site near Tehran, and radar sites in Dezful and Andimeshk in Khuzestan province, with possible impacts in Ilam province as well.
More worryingly are unconfirmed reports that some of the Israeli air strikes (either missiles or drones) may have been launched from Azerbaijan. If this proves accurate, Baku could find itself in Tehran’s cross-hairs.
As expected, the game of claim and counterclaim began almost immediately; Israel’s premiere Binyamin Netanyahu asserted the strikes on Iran were precise, powerful and achieved all goals.
Iranian Defence Minister General Nasirzadeh asserted — “the Israeli regime’s recent act of aggression inflicted trivial damages. Iran repaired and replaced those damages immediately”. According to the Iranian Army, four servicemen were killed during the Israeli attack.
Tellingly, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei noted that, while Israel seeks to magnify its attack on Iran for its own agenda — “it would be equally misguided to downplay the incident and dismiss it as insignificant or unimportant”.
Certainly, the official photograph of Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant taken at Tel Aviv’s Kirya military base during the operation shows expressions that reflect defeat rather than triumph.
And the fact that the official photograph of Defence minister Gallant during the operation shows him looking at a monitor with a a picture of an explosion at an Iranian oil refinery from June 3rd 2021 is a tad clumsy for a communications team that is usually more adept—
What the world now knows is that the tit for tat exchange between Israel and Iran laid bare the failure of Israel’s — read America’s — most advanced missile defence systems to counter Iranian ballistic missiles whilst demonstrating that Iran’s missile defence systems — read Russian — can effectively counter the West’s missiles — the geopolitical implications of this reality are profound.
It’s not just that fifth-generation stealth F35 fighter jets costing over $100 million a piece are, well, not very stealthy, or that aircraft carriers have effectively become floating coffins; it’s that the West is fighting today’s wars with Second World War tactics — strategies that can be defeated by a middle-income country.
This hard truth puts the entire region in a frighteningly dangerous moment. Netanyahu together with the neoconservative hawks in Washington have advocated for comprehensively defeating Iran militarily for over two decades. The next step-up the escalatory ladder is the use of tactical nuclear weapons. With the US presidential election only days away, common sense may break-out, but who’s banking on it?
