As at Jan’25 a total of 92 cargo vessels have transited the entire Northern Sea route. Shipping volumes amount to about 3 million tons and are projected to increase to 90 million tons by 2030 and 130 million tons by 2035.
When are we going to wake up and abandon the notion that Russia is a superpower? The Russian military has been thoroughly decimated by the Ukraine war. Russia has a GDP slightly less than Texas.its oil assets are under threat by permafrost and those oil assets are likely to decline without western oil companies to maintain them, never mind bring new capacity online. The demographic disaster that is Russia today may be past a tipping point, and is unlikely to recover in a generation.
Similarly, China has a major demographic problem and its population is likely to halve by mid-century. That leaves Europe and the US as the major economies.
And the US would impose travel restrictions around Svalbard with what? The author immediately contradicted himself here, for he already mentioned earlier in the article that Russia commands the largest icebreaker force in the world, including 8 nuclear ones equipped with Kalibr missile with a proven range of over 1500km. The US still has no equivalent to this weapon today. The only way it could possibly do something is with aircrafts coming from Thule but then it’s also Thule’s death warrant.
Isn't the problem with trying to close off Svalberg freedom of navigation? You can't close off the Barents Sea without agreeing that China can close the South China Sea. It would violate 100+ years of western martime policy.
Too bad asshole, you may NOT have ANY money from the American People. Americans pay for your social services system while our largesse protects you.
Waiting to hear about that first voyage from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Last I remember was in the 40s.
As at Jan’25 a total of 92 cargo vessels have transited the entire Northern Sea route. Shipping volumes amount to about 3 million tons and are projected to increase to 90 million tons by 2030 and 130 million tons by 2035.
Wonder why not mentioned in article?
When are we going to wake up and abandon the notion that Russia is a superpower? The Russian military has been thoroughly decimated by the Ukraine war. Russia has a GDP slightly less than Texas.its oil assets are under threat by permafrost and those oil assets are likely to decline without western oil companies to maintain them, never mind bring new capacity online. The demographic disaster that is Russia today may be past a tipping point, and is unlikely to recover in a generation.
Similarly, China has a major demographic problem and its population is likely to halve by mid-century. That leaves Europe and the US as the major economies.
And the US would impose travel restrictions around Svalbard with what? The author immediately contradicted himself here, for he already mentioned earlier in the article that Russia commands the largest icebreaker force in the world, including 8 nuclear ones equipped with Kalibr missile with a proven range of over 1500km. The US still has no equivalent to this weapon today. The only way it could possibly do something is with aircrafts coming from Thule but then it’s also Thule’s death warrant.
We can screw with them in other theaters where we have much more relative strength, in retaliation, whilst building up a fleet.
Pissing off America means pissing off America, generally, not just in the Arctic
Why does confrontation have to be a feature of America’s foreign policy? Why can’t it be cooperation?
All foreign policy necessarily involves both
Isn't the problem with trying to close off Svalberg freedom of navigation? You can't close off the Barents Sea without agreeing that China can close the South China Sea. It would violate 100+ years of western martime policy.
The world's maritime chokepoints are viewed in the context of leverage; see https://fountainbridge.substack.com/p/chokepoints.